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primarysourced Photonics sector POET
POET

Events & catalyst calendar

Forward catalysts, dated milestones, and a daily-rebuild changelog. Auto-populated by the rebuild script; supplemented with hand-curated near-term events from the open questions register.

Forward catalysts

18 upcoming · spans 2026-04-29 → 2028-12-31
DATETYPEEVENTQ2Q3Q42027Q2Q3Q42028Q2Q3Q4today · 2026-04-272026-04-29MARKETPOST-Apr-27 DILUTION …2026-04-29 — POST-Apr-27 DILUTION SHOCK — $150M Registered Direct closed: POET disclosed via 6-K on Apr 27, 2026 the closing of a $150M registered direct offering. Stock collapsed -46% intraday Apr 27 to close $7.95 (from Apr 24 close $15.10) on 199M shares — 25x avg daily volume. Apr 28 close $8.03 (+1.01%) on 82026-05-15EARNINGSQ1 2026 6-K interim r…2026-05-15 — Q1 2026 6-K interim release (target window): First post-FY25-20-F operating data point. Will disclose Q1 2026 NRE + product revenue, customer-engagement progress (DenseLight + Sivers DFB integration milestones), cash position post-Jan-23 raise, R&D + opex run-rate. Tests bull case Pil2026-05-15SEC-FILINGQ1 2026 13F filing wi…2026-05-15 — Q1 2026 13F filing window — institutional holder lookthrough: 13F-HR filings for Q1 2026 due to SEC by May 15, 2026 (45 days post quarter-end). First 13F lookthrough window covering the Jan 23 $150M RD — will reveal which institutions participated. POET's only currently-disclosed 5%+ holder (MMCAP / M2026-06-15MARKETPOET AGM 2026 (target…2026-06-15 — POET AGM 2026 (target June window): Annual General Meeting. Management presentation typically covers full-year strategic priorities, IP portfolio updates, partner-relationship status. AGM 2026 may include a vote / status update on the proposed US-redomicile (resolves PFIC ris2026-08-15EARNINGSQ2 2026 6-K interim r…2026-08-15 — Q2 2026 6-K interim release (target window): Mid-year operating data point. First half-year tracking against the 30,000+ engine 2026 commitment. Will reveal whether the May/Jun production-shipment ramp is on schedule. Tests bull Pillar 5 + bear Pillar 2 (eight-year execution-risk patt2026-09-08INDUSTRYCIOE 2026 (Shenzhen —…2026-09-08 — CIOE 2026 (Shenzhen — target Sept 2026): China Optoelectronics Exposition. Historical POET disclosure venue (2025: 1.6T Optical Engine + Light Source breakthrough disclosed). 2026 reveals could include first 3.2T product demos (QCi TFLN collaboration) or new module-OEM design-win 2026-09-22INDUSTRYECOC 2026 — European …2026-09-22 — ECOC 2026 — European Conference on Optical Communication (Brussels target Sept 21-25): Annual European photonics conference. POET historical track: ECOC 2025 'Most Innovative' award. Tests risks T5 (CPO architectural shift) — ECOC 2026 disclosures will reveal whether merchant-pluggable layer is holding share vs. CPO encroachm2026-10-15TECHFirst production ship…2026-10-15 — First production shipments — disclosed $5M order ($800G optical engines): Per POET IR Oct 22, 2025: production shipments scheduled for second half of 2026. First revenue recognition window. Tests bull case Pillar 5 + risks T1 (yield), F1 (SilTerra capacity), C1 (single-customer concentration). Disclosure path: Q32026-11-15EARNINGSQ3 2026 6-K interim r…2026-11-15 — Q3 2026 6-K interim release (target window): Q3 2026 revenue trajectory. First full quarter of production shipments expected. Verifies the 30,000+ engine 2026 trajectory. Critical print for cash-burn extrapolation (at ~$170M annualized burn rate, post-Apr-27 RD takes runway to ~mid-202027-03-15EARNINGSQ4 2026 6-K + FY26 fi…2027-03-15 — Q4 2026 6-K + FY26 financial release (target window): Full-year 2026 revenue total. Critical bull-case Pillar 5 verification: did the production-volume math hold? GlobeNewswire press release + 6-K filing.2027-03-22INDUSTRYOFC 2027 — Optical Fi…2027-03-22 — OFC 2027 — Optical Fiber Communication Conference (San Diego, target March): Premier industry venue. Hyperscaler module-spec disclosures, 3.2T architecture disclosures, CPO-vs-pluggable architectural inflection visibility. Tests risks T5, X1. POET historical OFC presence + product reveals.2027-04-30SEC-FILINGFY26 20-F annual repo…2027-04-30 — FY26 20-F annual report due (target April-May 2027): Full audited financial statements + customer-concentration disclosures + risk-factor diff (vs FY25 20-F). PFIC determination + US-redomicile track update. Material risks update + auditor opinion. POET FY-end Dec 31; 20-F due within 4 months2027-05-15EARNINGSQ1 2027 6-K interim r…2027-05-15 — Q1 2027 6-K interim release (target window): Tests whether 2H 2026 production momentum carried into 2027. Tests bear-case Pillar 2 ('nearly there since [year]') falsification: if Q1 2027 product revenue prints meaningfully above the 2026 run-rate, the eight-year execution-risk pattern2027-08-15EARNINGSQ2 2027 6-K — second-…2027-08-15 — Q2 2027 6-K — second-half cash assessment: First half 2027 revenue total. Probability assessment of additional capital raise need. At $170M annualized burn, second-half-2027 cash position becomes a forward concern if no commercial-revenue inflection has happened.2027-09-25INDUSTRYECOC 2027 (target Sep…2027-09-25 — ECOC 2027 (target Sept 2027): Third consecutive ECOC POET track. Tests architectural-positioning competitive narrative two years out.2028-03-15EARNINGSOFC 2028 + FY27 20-F …2028-03-15 — OFC 2028 + FY27 20-F filing window: Critical inflection check: 1.6T product cycle should be in volume by this window (Sivers DFB lasers in production end-2026, NTT high-volume production targeted 2027). FY27 20-F audit opinion + risk-factor disclosure.2028-09-30INDUSTRY3.2T product-cycle co…2028-09-30 — 3.2T product-cycle commercialization (QCi TFLN collaboration, target 2028-2029): Long-term product cycle. Tests risks X4 (TFLN modulator-IP competition).2028-12-31MARKETPossible US-redomicil…2028-12-31 — Possible US-redomicile completion window (2028-2029 target): Resolves PFIC risk K4. Opens broader US institutional investor base. Disclosure path: SEC EDGAR 20-F change-of-control / 10-K / NT-10 sequence; SEDAR Canadian deregistration.
earningsmarketindustryconferencetechnicalregulatory

Near-term hard catalysts

  1. 2026-05
    high
    Q1 2026 6-K interim release (target mid-May)
    First post-FY25-20-F operating data point. Will disclose Q1 2026 NRE + product revenue, customer-engagement progress, cash position, R&D + opex run-rate. The first forward test of the 30,000+ engine production commitment.
    earnings
  2. 2026-06
    medium
    POET AGM 2026 (typical June window)
    Management presentation typically covers full-year strategic priorities, IP portfolio updates, partner-relationship status. AGM 2026 may include US-redomicile vote / status update — a structural multiple-expansion catalyst if completed.
    agm
  3. 2026-09-21
    medium
    ECOC 2026 (estimated Brussels Sept 2026)
    European Conference on Optical Communication. Historical POET disclosure venue (ECOC 2025 'Most Innovative' award). 2026 disclosures will reveal whether merchant-pluggable layer is holding share vs. CPO encroachment.
    conference
  4. 2026-10
    high
    First production shipments under $5M order (2H 2026)
    Production shipments scheduled for second half of 2026. First revenue recognition window. Tests Bull case Pillar 5 + Risks T1 (yield), F1 (SilTerra capacity), C1 (single-customer concentration). Q3 2026 6-K (target November) will be the disclosure venue.
    milestone
  5. 2027-03-08
    high
    OFC 2027 (estimated San Diego March 2027) + FY26 20-F filing
    Optical Fiber Communication conference + critical FY26 20-F filing window (March-April 2027). Hyperscaler module-spec disclosures, 3.2T architecture disclosures, CPO-vs-pluggable architectural inflection visibility. FY26 20-F: customer-concentration footnote, going-concern test, US-redomicile track update.
    conference

Catalyst impact backtest

10 historical catalysts · day-of / 5d / 30d returns

Average return by catalyst type

partner(2)
day-of: +0.0%
5d: -5.2%
30d: +19.0%
industry(2)
day-of: +0.0%
5d: +23.5%
30d: -4.5%
capital(2)
day-of: +0.0%
5d: -16.0%
30d: -1.0%
customer(4)
day-of: -11.7%
5d: -5.9%
30d: +18.4%

Per-event detail

DateEventTypePreDay-of5d30dNote
2026-04-23Initial production-unit purchase orders disclosed (later identified as Celestial AI / Marvell)customer$15.10-46.8%——MISS. Most prominent design win in Marvell-DSP-anchored CPO architecture. Cancellation 2026-04-23 cited 'alleged disclosures of information related to the Purchase Order and shipping information in contravention of confidentiality obligations'. POET stock fell ~46% intraday 2026-04-28 — sharpest intraday drop on record. Reframes FY2026 revenue pipeline; replacement orders from non-Marvell customers become primary near-term thesis driver.
2026-03-31FY25 20-F filed; management commits to 30,000+ optical engines shipped in 2026industry$5.94+0.0%+4.7%—HIT (COMMITMENT MADE; DELIVERY TBD). Management framing: 'decisive transition from development to execution'. Commitment is testable in Q1-Q4 2026 6-Ks. If revenue tracks materially below the implied $2.5-3.75M/quarter run-rate, the bear-case execution-risk pattern is confirmed.
2026-01-23$150M registered direct subsequent-event raise (post FY25 year-end)capital$6.91+0.0%-16.1%-3.2%HIT. Same Titan Partners Group placement as the Oct 2025 raise; same $7.25 price. Pre-offering 132,021,526 → post-offering 152,711,182 shares O/S. Brings starting-2026 cash to ~$580M, providing ~3.4 years runway at $170M annualized burn. Bull-counter: pricing held strength; bear-counter: continued dilution-funded operating model.
2025-11-13Q3 2025 earnings disclose >$5.6M production orders from two unnamed key customerscustomer$4.70+0.0%-10.6%+39.1%HIT. Two successive initial production orders totaling >$5.6M. Customer names not disclosed at time of release. Whether these overlap with Mentech / Lessengers or are separate transactions is not clarified publicly. Reinforces NDA-shielded customer-base pattern.
2025-10-28Brokered registered direct $150M @ $7.25/share (20.69M shares) — largest single capital raise in POET historycapital$7.07+0.0%-15.8%+1.1%HIT. Pricing strength: each successive 2025 raise priced higher ($5.00 → $5.50 → $7.25, +45% across 8 months). Structural shift from warrant-attached PIPE (Canadian retail-style) to plain-vanilla registered-direct (institutional). Bull-pillar evidence of capital-structure inflection. Bear counter: 20.69M new shares = +15.7% single-event dilution.
2025-10-22$5M production order disclosed for 800G optical engines from 'leading systems integrator' (delivery 2H 2026)customer$7.37+0.0%-10.0%-13.6%PARTIAL. Only public production-order anchor as of 2026-04-29. Customer name not disclosed. Q3-Q4 2026 6-K shipment milestone is the testable forward window. If shipments slip or customer cancels, the 30,000+ engine 2026 commitment is structurally unbacked.
2025-09-30ECOC 2025 'Most Innovative Chip-scale Packaging' award for Optical Interposer + 200G/lane Tx/Rx enginesindustry$5.54+0.0%+42.2%-4.5%HIT. Industry validation milestone. Validates hand-fabricated demonstration architecture but does not test production-grade yield. Award-cycle typical price reactions are modest in microcaps; specific POET price reaction not separately tracked.
2024-12-31Sanan SPX JV — production scale-up vehicle for 100/200/400G optical engines; revenue ramp 2022-2023partner$5.95+0.0%-7.4%-17.3%MISS. JV ended in $6.5M-over-5-yr buyout of Sanan's 24.8% in Dec 2024 + remaining 75.2% for $6.5M Dec 2025. SPX product-revenue contribution to consolidated POET financials remained nominal through 2024. Pattern: structural commitment unwinds at distressed-implied valuation.
2024-09-12Mentech Technology selected for 800G + 1.6T transceiver-module enginescustomer$3.05+0.0%+3.0%+29.5%PARTIAL. Engineering / initial-build sample purchase orders placed; specific revenue contribution undisclosed. Active engagement as of mid-2026; not yet at named-volume-customer level required for thesis-defining inflection.
2020-12-31SilTerra MCA — first commercial Optical Interposer wafers + customer engagements (revenue ramp targeted 2019-2020)partner$6.50+0.0%-3.1%+55.4%MISS. First documented cycle in 'nearly there since [year]' pattern. Original 2-year framing slipped to 4-6 year timeline. Actual CY2020 commercial Optical Interposer revenue: effectively zero.

Full forward calendar

All dated catalysts in the database. Verify each via primary source before acting.

  • 2026-04-29 POST-Apr-27 DILUTION SHOCK — $150M Registered Direct closed
  • 2026-05-15 Q1 2026 6-K interim release (target window)
  • 2026-05-15 Q1 2026 13F filing window — institutional holder lookthrough
  • 2026-06-15 POET AGM 2026 (target June window)
  • 2026-08-15 Q2 2026 6-K interim release (target window)
  • 2026-09-08 CIOE 2026 (Shenzhen — target Sept 2026)
  • 2026-09-22 ECOC 2026 — European Conference on Optical Communication (Brussels target Sept 21-25)
  • 2026-10-15 First production shipments — disclosed $5M order ($800G optical engines)
  • 2026-11-15 Q3 2026 6-K interim release (target window)
  • 2027-03-15 Q4 2026 6-K + FY26 financial release (target window)
  • 2027-03-22 OFC 2027 — Optical Fiber Communication Conference (San Diego, target March)
  • 2027-04-30 FY26 20-F annual report due (target April-May 2027)
  • 2027-05-15 Q1 2027 6-K interim release (target window)
  • 2027-08-15 Q2 2027 6-K — second-half cash assessment
  • 2027-09-25 ECOC 2027 (target Sept 2027)
  • 2028-03-15 OFC 2028 + FY27 20-F filing window
  • 2028-09-30 3.2T product-cycle commercialization (QCi TFLN collaboration, target 2028-2029)
  • 2028-12-31 Possible US-redomicile completion window (2028-2029 target)

Daily changelog

RSS feed →

Auto-generated from primary-source diffs each rebuild. Tagged by area.

  1. 2026-04-29
    sitelaunchthesis
    POET Technologies onboarded — minimal layout, daily refresh active. Initial KB build: 5-pillar bull case, 5-pillar bear case, 7-category risk register, forward catalyst calendar, 10 open research questions. JSON dashboards populated: 12 INSIGHTS entries, 8 KPI tiles, 5 design-win engagements, 6-row competitor matrix, valuation framework with bear/base/bull scenarios, 13 browse cards, 10 catalyst events, 14-term glossary. Source log compiled with 30+ unique primary URLs across SEC EDGAR, POET IR, partner press releases (Sivers, NTT, Semtech, QCi), industry forecasts, peer-reviewed photonics literature.
  2. 2026-04-29
    correctionprimary-source
    DenseLight ground-truth correction: POET divested DenseLight Semiconductors in November 2019 for $26M cash to a Chinese consortium (DenseLight Semiconductor Technology Shanghai). DenseLight is NOT a current POET subsidiary. Post-2019 III-V active stack is rebuilt through partnerships (Sivers, NTT, Semtech, QCi). Sources: poet-technologies.com/news/2019-aug-20 + compoundsemiconductor.net/article/109442.
  3. 2026-04-29
    correctionprimary-source
    Foundry partner ground-truth correction: POET's silicon-photonic-interposer foundry partner is SilTerra Malaysia (April 6 2018 master collaboration agreement), not Tower Semiconductor. Tower's photonics partnership in this ecosystem is with Lightwave Logic. Source: sst.semiconductor-digest.com/2018/04/poet-technologies-and-silterra-announce-partnership.
  4. 2026-04-29
    edgarprimary-source
    FY25 20-F primary-source verified: filed 2026-03-31, accession 0001493152-26-014253. FY 2025 net loss ~$63M; revenue $1.07M (+2,494% YoY from $41,427 FY24 base); cash $430M end-2025; accumulated deficit ~$297M. Q4 2025 quarterly burn $42.7M = ~$170M annualized run-rate.