POET Open Research Questions

This file enumerates 8-10 questions about POET Technologies that the company has not publicly answered as of 2026-04-29 — questions that materially affect the bull / bear thesis but cannot be resolved from primary-source materials at this date. Each question gets:

The research path: where the answer would surface (forward filings, industry conferences, partner disclosures, SEDAR documents, etc.)
Current best-guess with explicit confidence flag (◐ partial / ⚠ inferred / ✓ corroborated)
Thesis-impact mapping to bull / bear pillars and risk IDs

The list is prioritized roughly by thesis-significance: highest-impact unanswered questions first.

Q1. Who is the “leading systems integrator” customer for the disclosed $5M production order?

Research path: (a) POET press releases naming the customer at first volume shipment; (b) module-OEM partner press releases (e.g., if Innolight, Eoptolink, Coherent, Lumentum, Hisense Broadband, or Source Photonics announces a POET-integrated 800G product); (c) FY26 20-F revenue-concentration footnote (typically required when a single customer is > 10% of total revenue).

Current best-guess ⚠ inferred: The disclosed customer profile (“leading systems integrator,” 2xFR4 + 2xDR4 400G transmit + 800G 2xFR4 + DR8 receive engines, POET IR 2025-10-22 ✓) most closely fits a Tier-1 Chinese module OEM (Innolight or Eoptolink — both ship FR4 + DR4 + DR8 at scale) or a US module OEM (Coherent, Lumentum, Source Photonics). The “systems integrator” framing rather than “module OEM” framing is unusual — could indicate a hyperscaler-direct or networking-equipment-vendor (Cisco, Arista) engagement, but this is highly speculative.

Thesis impact: bull case Pillar 4 + bear case Pillar 3 + risks C1, C2.

Research path: (a) FY25 20-F filed 2026-03-31 accession 0001493152-26-014253 — needs direct read for definitive share-count + warrant + option overhang data; (b) any 6-K interim reporting share-count change from the January 2026 raise; (c) SEDAR proxy materials.

Current best-guess ⚠ inferred: ~67.5M shares outstanding per STOCK_PRICE_DATA.json — but this conflicts with secondary-source reports (SeekingAlpha 2025-11 ◐) suggesting ~152.7M post-October-2025 raise. The 67.5M number may be pre-2025-raise or may use a different share-class accounting. This needs primary-source verification from the FY25 20-F.

Confidence: ⚠ inferred — primary-source verification pending.

Thesis impact: bear case Pillar 1 dilution-trajectory math, risks K1, K2. Until this is verified, all per-share fair-value math in this kb carries a ⚠ confidence-band qualifier.

Q3. What are POET’s current customer engagement counts and stages (engaged / NRE / production / volume)?

Research path: (a) Q1 2026 6-K disclosures expected mid-May 2026; (b) AGM 2026 management presentation; (c) FY26 20-F customer-disclosure footnote.

Current best-guess ◐ partial: POET’s Q4 2025 release framing of “customer engagements deepening” (GlobeNewswire 2026-03-31 ✓) plus the disclosed partnerships (Sivers, NTT, Semtech, QCi) plus the named $5M order suggest 4-8 active customer engagements. Concrete stage distribution is not publicly disclosed. Estimated breakdown:

Engaged (NDA + spec): 3-5 engagements ⚠
NRE / tape-out: 1-2 engagements ⚠
Production (named order): 1 engagement (the $5M order ✓)
Volume: 0 engagements ✓

Thesis impact: bull case Pillars 3 + 4, risks C1, C2, C3.

Q4. What are the precise terms of POET’s foundry agreement with SilTerra in 2026?

Research path: (a) FY25 20-F material-contracts disclosure footnote; (b) SilTerra-side public statements; (c) backup-foundry qualification disclosures (if POET is qualifying alternate foundry, that signals SilTerra renegotiation).

Current best-guess ◐ partial: The April 6 2018 master collaboration agreement (Semiconductor Digest 2018-04 ✓) had an “initial three-year term” — that term has expired. Renewal terms, current pricing, capacity allocation, and exclusivity conditions are not publicly disclosed.

Thesis impact: bull case Pillar 2, risks F1, F4, IP2.

Q5. What is the actual production-yield rate for POET’s Optical Interposer at first volume shipment?

Research path: (a) Q3 / Q4 2026 6-K commentary on production performance; (b) module-OEM customer commentary on POET-supplied component quality; (c) FY26 20-F manufacturing-readiness disclosure.

Current best-guess ⚠ inferred: Hand-fabricated demonstration units have validated the architecture (ECOC 2025 award GlobeNewswire 2025-09-30 ✓, CIOE 2025 1.6T receiver demo GlobeNewswire 2025-09-04 ✓). Production-volume yield is unproven publicly. Industry-typical first-production yield for hybrid-integrated photonic engines: 30-60% with rapid yield-learning curves.

Thesis impact: bull case Pillar 1, risks T1, T2, F1.

Q6. What is POET’s current burn-rate trajectory for 2026 (assuming the operating leverage from production revenue)?

Research path: (a) Q1 2026 6-K opex breakdown; (b) FY26 20-F segment-level costs; (c) management guidance commentary on operating-cash-flow breakeven horizon.

Current best-guess ⚠ inferred: Q4 2025 net loss was $42.7M (GlobeNewswire 2026-03-31 ✓). FY 2025 net loss was ~$63M total. FY 2025 R&D spend ~$15.9M. The Q4 2025 loss includes elevated production-readiness investment + financing-related costs. Steady-state 2026 quarterly burn likely in the $35-45M range, implying $140-180M annualized — consistent with the risks K1 framing. Operating-cash-flow breakeven appears highly unlikely before FY27.

Thesis impact: bear case Pillar 1 dilution-math, risks K1, K3.

Q7. What is the status of POET’s US-redomicile track?

Research path: (a) AGM 2026 proxy materials and shareholder vote (typical AGM cadence June); (b) SEDAR Canadian deregistration filing; (c) NT-10 + 10-K transition filing if executed.

Current best-guess ◐ partial: POET has signaled US-redomicile evaluation in 6-K disclosures (POET 6-K PFIC ✓). No public timeline disclosed. The redomicile would resolve PFIC status and broaden the US institutional investor base. Most likely catalyst: AGM 2026 vote with completion 2026-2027.

Thesis impact: risks K4, IP5.

Q8. What is POET’s competitive positioning vs. Tower Semiconductor’s CPO foundry technology at the 1.6T+ pluggable layer?

Research path: (a) Tower’s CPO-foundry customer disclosures (likely at OFC 2027); (b) POET’s 1.6T product roadmap competitive differentiation language at CIOE 2026 / ECOC 2026; (c) industry analyst comp matrix updates (LightCounting, Dell’Oro, 650 Group).

Current best-guess ⚠ inferred: Tower’s November 12 2025 announcement (GlobeNewswire 2025-11-12 ✓) plus the Q3 2025 SiPh revenue of ~$52M (~70% YoY) signals Tower is winning the merchant-foundry layer for hyperscaler-direct CPO programs. POET’s hybrid-integration positioning addresses a different customer set (module OEMs, not hyperscaler-direct CPO) — but the addressable-market boundary between these two architectures is the central competitive question for 2026-2028.

Thesis impact: risks T5, X1, F4. This is arguably the highest-impact open question for the long-term thesis.

Q9. Has POET filed for or initiated a backup-foundry qualification process beyond SilTerra?

Research path: (a) Material-contracts disclosure in FY25/FY26 20-F; (b) GlobalFoundries / Tower / TSMC SiPh foundry public customer-list updates; (c) module-OEM design-cycle commentary on supply-chain redundancy.

Current best-guess ⚠ inferred: No public disclosure of a backup foundry as of 2026-04-29. POET continues to publicly attribute manufacturing to SilTerra. Industry practice for component vendors at scale typically includes a qualified backup foundry — if POET is reaching production volume, a backup qualification effort is plausible but not disclosed.

Thesis impact: risks F1, F4.

Q10. What is the competitive overhang from Marvell’s end-to-end optical stack (Polariton + Celestial + Inphi) on POET’s 2027-2028 design-win pipeline?

Research path: (a) Marvell’s optical-segment revenue + customer disclosures across FY27 calls; (b) Polariton POH integration timeline + first commercial product disclosures; (c) module-OEM customer-side commentary on Marvell-vs-POET design-vendor selection.

Current best-guess ⚠ inferred: Marvell’s Polariton acquisition (closed April 22 2026, see MRVL bull case Pillar 2) creates a hybrid-integration competitor to POET’s Optical Interposer at the 3.2T+ window. Marvell’s $130B market cap + end-to-end optical stack (Inphi DSP + Polariton modulation + Celestial Photonic Fabric scale-up) is a structurally larger competitive presence than POET. The competitive question is whether POET retains the merchant-pluggable-engine lower-cost positioning at the 1.6T pluggable layer while Marvell focuses on 3.2T+ and CPO scale-up.

Thesis impact: risks X4, X5.