Short interest history — POET Technologies
Period: 2025-04-15 to 2026-04-15 ✓ (verified primary, internal
companies/poet/data/STOCK_SHORT_INTEREST.json).As of: 2026-04-29 (latest data point: 2026-04-15)
Data source: NASDAQ short-interest API (bi-weekly settlement cycle); refreshed by
scripts/update_finra.pyduring company onboarding ✓.
Executive summary
POET short interest expanded dramatically during the second half of 2025 — from ~5.4% of float in May 2025 to a peak of ~20.2% of float in March 2026. This expansion coincided exactly with the 2025 capital-raise sequence (May / July / October PIPEs + October / January registered directs). Short sellers have built a structurally large position that is consistent with the serial-dilution narrative: each new raise creates incremental issuable shares, the warrant overhang grows, and short conviction (per the bi-weekly settlement-cycle data) has remained elevated.
Current levels (2026-04-15): 12,422,086 shares short / 19.11% of float / days-to-cover 1.03 days.
Caveat. ”% of float” calculations in the source data may use a stale float figure (pre-raise share count). After the Oct 7 / Oct 28 / Jan 23 raises, float has expanded materially; the percentage metric may understate the true short-position concentration relative to current float. The absolute share count (12.4M shares) is the cleaner read.
12-month short interest trajectory
Data sourced from
companies/poet/data/STOCK_SHORT_INTEREST.json(NASDAQ short-interest API), bi-weekly settlement cadence.
| Settlement Date | Shares Short | % of Float | Days to Cover | Catalyst Context (analyst notes ⚠) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-15 | 3,850,560 | 5.92% | 3.93 | Baseline — pre-2025 raise sequence |
| 2025-04-30 | 3,538,426 | 5.44% | 6.67 | Quiet period |
| 2025-05-15 | 3,175,333 | 4.89% | 5.58 | Pre-May 22 PIPE |
| 2025-05-30 | 3,618,561 | 5.57% | 4.23 | Post-May 22 $30M PIPE; modest short re-entry |
| 2025-06-13 | 3,976,144 | 6.12% | 4.58 | Building |
| 2025-06-30 | 4,730,385 | 7.28% | 1.95 | Pre-Jul 17 raise |
| 2025-07-15 | 4,993,199 | 7.68% | 1.45 | Around Jul 17 $25M PIPE |
| 2025-07-31 | 6,067,516 | 9.33% | 2.01 | Step-up: post-Jul PIPE; short conviction builds |
| 2025-08-15 | 6,335,256 | 9.75% | 4.00 | Sustained |
| 2025-08-29 | 6,022,220 | 9.26% | 4.57 | Stable |
| 2025-09-15 | 6,165,349 | 9.49% | 5.85 | Pre-Q3 raise cluster |
| 2025-09-30 | 6,657,086 | 10.24% | 1.75 | Crossing 10% threshold |
| 2025-10-15 | 6,727,078 | 10.35% | 1.00 | Around Oct 7 $75M PIPE |
| 2025-10-31 | 11,333,739 | 17.44% | 1.00 | Massive step-up: post-Oct 28 $150M registered direct ✓ |
| 2025-11-14 | 12,358,896 | 19.01% | 1.11 | Continued build; top of range |
| 2025-11-28 | 11,251,912 | 17.31% | 1.87 | Slight covering |
| 2025-12-15 | 12,296,683 | 18.92% | 1.25 | Re-build |
| 2025-12-31 | 10,435,259 | 16.05% | 1.70 | Year-end light covering |
| 2026-01-15 | 9,359,149 | 14.40% | 1.22 | Pre-Jan 23 raise |
| 2026-01-30 | 11,064,384 | 17.02% | 1.00 | Re-step-up: post-Jan 23 $150M registered direct ✓ |
| 2026-02-13 | 11,539,283 | 17.75% | 1.65 | Sustained elevated |
| 2026-02-27 | 11,133,074 | 17.13% | 2.65 | Small covering |
| 2026-03-13 | 11,705,827 | 18.01% | 1.00 | Re-building |
| 2026-03-31 | 13,136,135 | 20.21% | 1.40 | PEAK: highest in 12-month period; FY2025 20-F filing day |
| 2026-04-15 | 12,422,086 | 19.11% | 1.03 | Current: modest covering off peak |
Thematic analysis
1. Short interest expansion correlates with raise cadence
Three of the four largest step-ups in the 12-month period align with capital-raise events:
| Step-up | From | To | Δ (shares short) | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 → 2025-07-31 | 4.99M | 6.07M | +1.07M (+22%) | Post-Jul 17 $25M PIPE |
| 2025-10-15 → 2025-10-31 | 6.73M | 11.33M | +4.61M (+69%) | Post-Oct 28 $150M registered direct ✓ |
| 2026-01-15 → 2026-01-30 | 9.36M | 11.06M | +1.70M (+18%) | Post-Jan 23 $150M registered direct |
| 2026-03-13 → 2026-03-31 | 11.71M | 13.14M | +1.43M (+12%) | FY2025 20-F filing (peak) |
Read. The ~$300M of capital raised across the Oct 28 + Jan 23 + Apr-likely-future cadence has attracted short interest as the new shares enter the market and arbitrage short sellers fade the post-raise rally. This is a textbook microcap-PIPE-arbitrage pattern.
2. Days-to-cover is structurally low — high turnover
Across the 12-month period, days-to-cover has hovered between 1.0 and 4.6, indicating high daily trading volume relative to short position size. POET’s 20-day average volume per STOCK_PRICE_DATA.json is ~5M shares. With short interest at ~12M shares and average volume ~5M, days-to-cover ~1–2 is mathematically consistent — meaning a sustained short-cover rally would unwind in 1-2 trading days, but it would require a catalyst (e.g., named hyperscaler design-win disclosure) to trigger.
3. % of float metric — likely understates current concentration
The source STOCK_SHORT_INTEREST.json data uses an apparent constant float of ~65M shares for the percentage calculation throughout the entire 12-month period. After the 2025–Jan 2026 raises, true float has expanded to ~140M+ shares.
Recalculated % of float using updated 152.7M outstanding (~145M float estimate):
| Date | Shares short | % of true updated float ⚠ |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 12,422,086 | ~8.6% ⚠ |
| 2026-03-31 | 13,136,135 | ~9.1% |
| 2025-10-31 | 11,333,739 | ~7.8% |
Read using updated float. True short interest as a % of current float is in the 7–9% range — still notably high for a small-cap stock but not the headline-grabbing 17–20% the stale-float calculation suggests. Either lens supports the conclusion that short conviction in POET is structurally elevated.
Cross-checks for short-interest signal
| Signal | Direction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Absolute short shares > 12M (recent) | Bearish position size | ✓ |
| Days to cover ~1 day (recent) | Easy to cover on positive catalyst → squeeze potential | ✓ |
| Short interest growth tracks raise cadence | Bear thesis = arbitrage of dilution | ✓ |
| Borrow rate / cost-to-borrow | Not in the JSON; aggregator cross-check open ⚠ | ⚠ |
| Failure-to-deliver (FTD) data | Not collected ⚠ | ⚠ |
Forward catalysts that would force short-cover
- Customer-named hyperscaler design-win disclosure — would invalidate the dilution-arbitrage thesis and trigger rapid short cover given low days-to-cover.
- First quarter of >$10M revenue — pivot point from “engineering revenue” to “production revenue” in the optical-engine ramp.
- Strategic partnership / minority investment from a named industry player — would validate institutional sponsorship.
- Reduction in MM Asset Management 9.99% position — bear sentiment signal; likely reinforces short conviction in the short term.
Sources
- NASDAQ short-interest API (bi-weekly settlement cadence) — primary source, refreshed by
scripts/update_finra.py. Data incompanies/poet/data/STOCK_SHORT_INTEREST.json. ✓ - POET stock-price snapshot at
companies/poet/data/STOCK_PRICE_DATA.json— 20-day avg volume context.
Cross-references
- Recent capital raises — raise cadence that drives short-cycle expansion
- Share count + dilution — float math underlying the % calculation
- Stock price history — price tape against which shorts have positioned